• The Income Side of GDP

    Updated: 2012-11-30 18:11:54
    One confusing thing about the GDP numbers is that there are “expenditure” numbers and there are “income” numbers. Their totals should be equal conceptionally, but they should be analyzed separately, which many commentators don’t do. It is typical to hear one comment on consumer spending, investment spending, and profits as if they are all part [...]

  • Irish businesses struggle to find ways to beat downturn

    Updated: 2012-11-30 18:09:46
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  • Osram to cut 4,700 jobs after spin-off from Siemens

    Updated: 2012-11-30 17:00:54
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  • Fiscal cliff notes: answering your questions

    Updated: 2012-11-30 16:25:00
    : Turn autoplay off Turn autoplay on Please activate cookies in order to turn autoplay off Jump to content s Jump to comments c Jump to site navigation 0 Jump to search 4 Terms and conditions 8 Edition : UK US Sign in Mobile Your profile Your details Your comments Your clippings Your lists Sign out Mobile About us About us Contact us Press office Guardian Print Centre Guardian readers' editor Observer readers' editor Terms of service Privacy policy Advertising guide Digital archive Digital edition Guardian Weekly Buy Guardian and Observer photos Today's paper The Guardian G2 features Comment and debate Editorials , letters and corrections Obituaries Other lives Sport Film music Subscribe Subscribe Subscribe to the Guardian iPhone app iPad edition Kindle Extra Guardian Weekly Digital

  • ESM downgrade rumored

    Updated: 2012-11-30 15:58:46
    Very vague from a dodgy wire. There is a kernel of truth to the talk, however, as the recent French downgrade does put the bailout fund’s AAA rating in jeopardy. EUR/USD at 1.3000 from 1.30235 NY highs on the chatter.

  • Euro zone wants Greece to buy back at least EUR 40 bln of their debt

    Updated: 2012-11-30 15:19:55
    According to an EU official via Reuters. Better yet, how ’bout buying EUR 40 bln of my debt? Odds are better you’ll be paid back…

  • "Can a first year economics student please take over EU economic policy?" by Andrew Watt

    Updated: 2012-11-30 14:24:42
    Imagine, if you will, an economics student taking an introductory macro exam with the following question: 1. In econaria unemployment, already at historical highs a year ago, has persistently risen over the last year, by a full percentage point in all. Meanwhile inflation has fallen, somewhat erratically, over the past year. The public authorities are [...]

  • The Third Quarter GDP Revisions–Better, But Not By Much

    Updated: 2012-11-29 19:13:05
    The second estimate of third quarter real GDP growth rate was 2.7 percent, up from 2.0 percent in the initial estimate. On the surface, that is a substantial improvement, but a look at the components makes it less so. In fact, the entire increase was accounted for by an increase of 0.77 percent in inventories, [...]

  • "Independent Annual Growth Survey launched" by Andrew Watt

    Updated: 2012-11-29 16:46:39
    Yesterday the OFCE, ECLM and IMK presented their joint Independent Annual Growth Survey in Brussels. You can download the report (which still requires a little polishing in places) here. The aim of this initiative, as the name suggests, is to offer an alternative analysis of the economic situation in Europe and of the policies to [...]

  • Marvin Miller and the Reserve Clause

    Updated: 2012-11-29 10:49:32
    Marvin Miller died on November 27, at the age of 95. While Miller worked for several major unions, and rose to prominence as a United Steel Workers official, his main legacy is as the executive director (1966-1982) of the Major … Continue reading →

  • Fiscal Cliff Negotiator Timothy Geithner is the Right Man for the Job

    Updated: 2012-11-28 15:24:55
    The President has designated Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner to head his administration’s team in the fiscal cliff negotiations. In my opinion, this is the most-best or least-worse choice he could have made from the perspective of getting a reasonable deal done. I base that not on my years serving with Tim on the FOMC—which were [...]

  • Rally Off November 16 Low Still Intact

    Updated: 2012-11-28 15:19:01
    Note: The S&P 500 was down 13.5 points on Wednesday morning. It rallied in the afternoon to finish up 10.9 points. Even with the declines on Wednesday morning, the bulls still have the upper hand. Assuming we did not know what symbols were used to generate the charts below (removes our bias), we can ask [...]

  • With Greece Aid Deal In Place, Can Markets Avoid Cliff?

    Updated: 2012-11-27 02:03:40
    After the close on Monday, the markets received some good news from Europe. It appears the expected deal to once again “save Greece” is in place. From the Washington Post: Euro-zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund clinched agreement on a new debt target for Greece on Monday in a breakthrough toward releasing [...]

  • Lying With Words As Well As Statistics

    Updated: 2012-11-26 16:09:37
    “When I use a word,” Humpty Dumpty said . . . “it means just what I choose it to mean, neither more nor less.” “The question is,” said Alice, “whether you can make words mean so many different things.” We had a lot of lying with statistics in the recent campaign, and it continues as [...]

  • Europe Key To Rally’s Staying Power

    Updated: 2012-11-26 02:56:03
    This week’s video contains: A risk-on vs. risk-off analysis using a weekly chart of S&P 500 longs vs. S&P 500 shorts (SPY/SH at 01:26 mark). An inflation vs. deflation analysis using a daily chart of silver relative to long-term Treasuries (SLV/TLT at 04:14). Discernible bullish progress on the daily chart of the S&P 500 Index (06:51). Possible weekly resistance [...]

  • Government Pensions in Greece

    Updated: 2012-11-25 17:05:00
    : Greek Default Watch A blog about Greece's need to create a sustainable economic path for itself and to do so quickly , in difficult circumstances , and under great . pressure Pages Home Greece in Figures Greek Crisis Timeline Q on the Greek Crisis The Big Picture Sunday , November 25, 2012 Government Pensions in Greece Government spending on state pensioners more than doubled from 2.9 billion to over 6.6 billion in 2000—2009 3.7 billion Why The number of pensioners rose by a mere 13—19 percent depending on whether one uses the data from the ministry of finance or ELSTAT see sources and notes below This graph plots the data from ELSTAT . Clearly , the number of pensioners cannot , alone , explain the increase in spending . To understand what drove more spending , I have decomposed the

  • Transportation in Focus: Hellenic Railways Organization (OSE)

    Updated: 2012-11-25 03:12:00
    : : Greek Default Watch A blog about Greece's need to create a sustainable economic path for itself and to do so quickly , in difficult circumstances , and under great . pressure Pages Home Greece in Figures Greek Crisis Timeline Q on the Greek Crisis The Big Picture Saturday , November 24, 2012 Transportation in Focus : Hellenic Railways Organization OSE Part three of a series on transportation in Greece . Hellenic Railways Organization OSE runs the country’s railway system passenger and freight and operates bus routes overseas . OSE was re-structured in 2006—2007, so the data stop at different points data from ELSTAT , Statistical Yearbook of Greece , various editions , here OSE is one of Greece’s longest standing and most loss-making companies , so in contrast to my other posts , this

  • CNBC Monetary Policy, November 7, 2012

    Updated: 2012-11-23 15:43:48
    CNBC Monetary Policy, November 2012

  • Calculated Risk

    Updated: 2012-11-23 14:13:08
    Business Insider has a very nice interview with Bill McBride, in which Bill explains why he is more optimistic about the economy than many others. And yes, the praise of Bill is all well deserved.

  • "The Challenges of Youth Unemployment in Portugal Against Recession and Austerity Policies" by Maria da Paz Campos Lima

    Updated: 2012-11-23 07:30:17
    The international financial crisis had disastrous consequences for Portugal in terms of economic growth, public debt and unemployment. Yet, the impact of the European sovereign debt crisis was more dramatic: a mounting budget deficit and recession led to rapid growth of sovereign debt.  Shut out of bond markets, Portugal followed Greece and Ireland in seeking emergency [...]

  • "Commenting on Scenarios for the Eurozone" by Reinhart Wettmann

    Updated: 2012-11-22 11:01:28
    1. The following short comment is not intended to discuss the sequence of events as imagined in the four Rodrigues Scenarios or to evaluate their respective probability. It only proposes to use the cognitive instrument of comparative analysis to juxtapose the past experience of some existing federal states and the future of the European Monetary Union [...]

  • Where Is The Inflation?

    Updated: 2012-11-21 21:35:34
    Going through some newspaper clippings the other day, I ran across an opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal titled, “Get Ready for Inflation and Higher Interest Rates.” The fourth paragraph is quoted below: “But as bad as the fiscal picture is, panic-driven monetary policies portend to have even more dire consequences. We can expect [...]

  • Most Recent Comments Via Twitter

    Updated: 2012-11-21 14:51:24
    You can access them here (@CiovaccoCapital). You do not need to know anything about Twitter to view our comments.

  • Transport in Focus: Company of Thermal Buses S.A. (ΕΘΕΛ)

    Updated: 2012-11-21 04:01:00
    : : . Greek Default Watch A blog about Greece's need to create a sustainable economic path for itself and to do so quickly , in difficult circumstances , and under great . pressure Pages Home Greece in Figures Greek Crisis Timeline Q on the Greek Crisis The Big Picture Tuesday , November 20, 2012 Transport in Focus : Company of Thermal Buses S.A . ΕΘΕΛ Part one of a series on transport in Greece . The Company of Thermal Buses ΕΘΕΛ has since acquired the trolley company of Athens and Piraeus to form a new venture it no longer exists in this form . Even so , some statistics on its activities are instructive . The table below gives the basic numbers data from ELSTAT , Statistical Yearbook of Greece 2009-2010 409, here From 2006 to 2009, the company’s output kilometers run was flat but it

  • The Year of Betting Conservatively

    Updated: 2012-11-20 15:10:56
    The upswing in global equity markets that started in July is now running out of steam, which comes as no surprise: with no significant improvement in growth prospects in either the advanced or major emerging economies, the rally always seemed to lack legs. If anything, the correction might have come sooner, given disappointing macroeconomic data [...]

  • Risk-On Making Some Progress

    Updated: 2012-11-20 02:31:12
    It is only two days, but so far we like what we see in terms of progress in our CCM Market Risk Model. The bullish set-ups we covered after the close on Friday were leveraged by the bulls. Many markets have held at logical levels of support. Unfortunately, most also have recently broken [...]

  • Possible Rally, But Outlook Remains Cloudy

    Updated: 2012-11-19 03:04:05
    Taken in isolation, Friday’s gains did little to improve the intermediate-term outlook for stocks. Set-ups are in place for a possible rally attempt, but a pop for more than a week or two should prove to be difficult for stocks. DeMark charts and indicators are proprietary tools from Market Studies, LLC. Video contents - November [...]

  • Europe in recession

    Updated: 2012-11-18 19:15:49
    : Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy CBO : What Accounts for the Slow Growth of the Economy After the Recession Main November 18, 2012 Europe in recession The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the Centre for Economic Policy Research the European counterpart of the U.S . NBER last week issued a declaration that Europe entered a new recession a year ago , dating the business cycle peak at 2011:Q3. Euro area real GDP , 2009:Q1 2012:Q2 normalized by 2011:Q3 100 Source : CEPR Interestingly , although Europe had been in the expansion phase over 2009:Q3-2011:Q4, real GDP still had not yet returned to its 2008:Q1 peak before the current recession . began Euro area real GDP , 1995:Q1 2012:Q2 normalized by 2011:Q3 100 Source : CEPR The CEPR announcement applies to Europe

  • Pity the Poor Child Molester

    Updated: 2012-11-18 04:47:40
    Imagine that you woke up one day and found, not that you had turned into a giant cockroach, but that you felt unacceptable sexual urges towards little girls or boys. What might you do? You might, possibly like Lewis Carroll, … Continue reading →

  • Fried Apple Pies

    Updated: 2012-11-17 19:40:08
    Tread on my corns, or tell me a lie, Just pass me a fried apple pie. Coming home exhausted after high-school basketball practices, my Mother frequently met me with a platter of freshly fried dried apple pies and a refillable glass of milk. The ritual continued during my visits home from college. Later, my bride [...]

  • CBO: "What Accounts for the Slow Growth of the Economy After the Recession?"

    Updated: 2012-11-17 15:05:55
    : : Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy Guest Contribution : Gridlock in Europe Main November 17, 2012 CBO : What Accounts for the Slow Growth of the Economy After the Recession CBO estimates that about two-thirds of the difference between the growth in real GDP in the current recovery and the average for other recoveries can be attributed to sluggish growth in potential GDP . From the newly released CBO report In the current recovery , both potential GDP , a measure of the underlying productive capacity of the economy , and the ratio of real GDP to potential GDP have grown unusually slowly . Because potential GDP is an estimate of the amount of real GDP that corresponds to a high rate of use of labor and capital resources , it is not typically affected very much

  • Cliff Talks Set Markets Up For Possible Bounce

    Updated: 2012-11-17 01:31:17
    On Friday, the Democrats and Republicans made a joint and civil statement to the press following a brief meeting on the fiscal cliff. It signaled to the markets they are trying to begin this round of talks in a more professional manner, which was not the case in 2011. Therefore, something changed today…it [...]

  • Most Recent Comments Via Twitter

    Updated: 2012-11-16 17:15:36
    You can access them here (@CiovaccoCapital).

  • Guest Contribution: Gridlock in Europe

    Updated: 2012-11-15 05:00:29
    : : Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy The Republican Joint Economic Committee Does Public Finance Main November 14, 2012 Guest Contribution : Gridlock in Europe The Rise and Fall of the IMF’s Reputation Today we are fortunate to have as a guest contributor Joseph Joyce Professor of Economics at Wellesley College , and author of the new book , The IMF and Global Financial Crises : Phoenix Rising Cambridge University Press The latest twists and turns in the saga of the Greek debt crisis are signs that the brief honeymoon the Fund enjoyed in the wake of the Great Recession” has ended . The wide-spread approval the IMF received for its first wave” of lending in 2008-09 has been followed by debates over the size and effectiveness of its lending in the more recent

  • Interviews on public banking

    Updated: 2012-11-15 02:25:58
    I’ll be traveling again for the next month, to Switzerland, Malaysia, Scotland, and the East Coast, so may not get an article out; but here are three interviews on public banking from last month’s travels – November 5, 2012 — “Populist Dialogues,” Alliance for Democracy with David Delk, “Escaping the Great Recession with Public Banking,” [...]

  • The Fiscal Cliff: Why Sticking It To The Rich Will Hurt Everyone

    Updated: 2012-11-15 00:26:26
    Excuse me investors, but I thought you were aware of the fiscal cliff before the election; but, apparently not. I’m sorry you finally noticed, but glad that you don’t approve. Beep! Beep! The tax debate during the campaign left a lot to be desired—almost everything in fact. The Republicans overstated their case a bit, but [...]

  • Big Picture Remains Concerning

    Updated: 2012-11-14 21:45:33
    Sunday’s video was titled “Charts Say Be Careful”. The May 2012 script continues to be followed by numerous asset classes. When we see evidence of a turn, we will redeploy our cash. The S&P 500 faced resistance in April and May (see red arrows below). In early August, a bullish breakout occurred for [...]

  • Credit Markets Show Risk Aversion

    Updated: 2012-11-13 20:58:01
    When “credit spreads widen” it means the desire to hold “junk” bonds is waning relative to the desire to hold more stable bonds. The chart below shows the performance of junk bonds (JNK) relative to the total bond market (BND). When the ratio rises, it favors risk-on; when it falls risk-off is in vogue. [...]

  • Maximizing GDP Growth with Minimal Budgetary Cost in the Face of the Fiscal Slope/Cliff

    Updated: 2012-11-13 02:40:55
    : Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy National Research Council : Climate and Social Stress : Implications for Security Analysis” Main November 12, 2012 Maximizing GDP Growth with Minimal Budgetary Cost in the Face of the Fiscal Slope Cliff We can maintain momentum , while moving toward budget sustainability , by allowing the Bush tax rate cuts for incomes above 250,000 to expire Last Thursday , CBO released Economic Effects of Policies Contributing to Fiscal Tightening in 2013 The bottom line is summarized in Figure 1. Figure 1 from CBO 2012 Note that if one extends most expiring tax provision , except for the lower tax tates on income above certain thresholds , and Index the AMT for Inflation” , then output will be 1.3 ppts above baseline which obtains under

  • "The Next Game of Economic Chicken: Not on the Deficit But Over Taxing the Rich" by Robert Reich

    Updated: 2012-11-12 18:51:04
    With the election behind us I had hoped we’d get beyond games of chicken. No such luck. But first you need to understand that the game of chicken isn’t about how much or when we cut the budget deficit. Or even whether the upcoming “fiscal cliff” poses a danger to the economy. The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office [...]

  • Austerity—Again

    Updated: 2012-11-11 14:53:00
    : Greek Default Watch A blog about Greece's need to create a sustainable economic path for itself and to do so quickly , in difficult circumstances , and under great . pressure Pages Home Greece in Figures Greek Crisis Timeline Q on the Greek Crisis The Big Picture Sunday , November 11, 2012 Austerity—Again Readers have challenged my recent posts on austerity—and my argument that Greece has yet to practice it—in various ways . Either , people say , the data is incorrect or it is irrelevant . Let me try one more time . This is the starting point . On one hand , we say the state is being starved and cannot perform basic functions . 8221 On the other , Greece still have a primary budget deficit , which means that we still cannot raise enough money to pay the bills even if we just ignored the

  • Shaken, Not Stirred

    Updated: 2012-11-11 02:18:01
    I sought relief from my post-election depression this week with a new James Bond movie, Skyfall, and a new Tom Wolfe book, Back to Blood. Both were distracting, but didn’t get the job done. As for Skyfall, Daniel Craig is a credible James Bond—he has muscles, shoots straight, and has nine lives—but l miss the [...]

  • Links for 2012-11-10

    Updated: 2012-11-10 14:45:09
    : Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy The Fiscal Cliff : International Implications Main November 10, 2012 Links for 2012-11-10 A few links to some items I found of . interest Jeff Miller explains why some analysts are misinterpreting a graph from Jeremy Piger that seems to point to increased probability of recession . In addition to the issues Jeff raises , if you check the original source for this graph , you'll see it is based on data through October 29. I expect Professor Piger's implied probability to come back down when the November 2 revisions to nonfarm payroll estimates are . incorporated Greg Mankiw suggests a compromise on the fiscal cliff that could allow both President Obama and Speaker Boehner to save face : raise tax revenue from the rich without

  • Fiscal Cliff and Grand Bargain (aka Grand Betrayal)

    Updated: 2012-11-09 21:37:30
    (1) “Don’t Drive Off the Fiscal Cliff”:  I just posted Heidi Garrett-Peltier’s comment from our September/October issue, Don’t Drive Off the Fiscal Cliff. The Serious People (e.g. here and here) seem to agree that the first post-election order of business … Continue reading →

  • No final decision on Greece next week, slower austerity assumed

    Updated: 2012-11-09 13:49:48
    Euro zone finance ministers are unlikely to release a new tranche of loans to Greece on Monday as there is no agreement yet on how to make its debt sustainable but Athens is set to get two more years to cut debt, officials said. read more

  • The Fiscal Cliff: International Implications

    Updated: 2012-11-08 17:03:22
    : : Econbrowser Analysis of current economic conditions and policy Finding compromise Main November 08, 2012 The Fiscal Cliff : International Implications Most of the discussion has focused on the domestic repercussions of going off the fiscal cliff or as my former colleague Chad Stone calls it , the fiscal slope” I think it important to remember that , as the single largest economy , policy in the US has profound implications for economic developments overseas . This is particularly true with the eurozone still in a fragile state , and China growing relatively . slowly Jim’s post yesterday tabulated the numerical components of the fiscal cliff . Goldman Sachs has used its own tabulation to estimate the impact on GDP growth over 2013 SAAR shown in Figure 1. Figure : 1 Effect on real GDP .

  • Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

    Updated: 2012-11-07 21:28:38
    A couple of weeks ago, the New York Times published an editorial arguing–contrary to the myth being promulgated by then-candidate Mitt Romney and affirmed by President Obama–that the government actually does create jobs. Washington Post columnist Robert Samuelson published an … Continue reading →

  • "European Commission autumn forecast: overoptimistic and in denial" by Andrew Watt

    Updated: 2012-11-07 18:06:45
    If you are thinking of embarking on reading the European Commission’s Autumn economic forecast (191 pages), released today, you may want to read the first sentence and then think hard whether you shouldn’t save yourself the trouble – especially if you remember last autumn’s prognosis. The report opens with the apparently bland The ongoing post-financial [...]

  • JOBS and Government Policy

    Updated: 2012-11-06 20:19:54
    (My previous post examined for students the anatomy or pathology of the October jobs report. This post continues with some policy philosophy or suggestions related to jobs.) At the national macro-economic or policy level, having higher levels of employment and lower levels of unemployment are highly desirable. Having more people pulling the wagon and fewer [...]

  • Prisoner Disenfranchisement and the Election

    Updated: 2012-11-05 21:02:43
    From our friends at the Prison Policy Initiative, this great infographic about how felony disenfranchisement could affect the presidential election.  Click here for a bigger view of the graphic. And PPI’s Leah Sakala has been blogging about prison-based gerrymandering (distortions … Continue reading →

  • Big fat Greek strike: MPs and govt say no escaping austerity

    Updated: 2012-11-05 13:33:56
    Debt-ridden Greece enters yet another week of anti-austerity protests. The country risks coming to a standstill as the parliament votes on a fresh austerity package of cost cuts and tax hikes for a new cash injection from its international creditors. A 24-hour strike starting Monday is expected to unite hospital doctors, journalists, Metro, taxi and train drivers and other transport workers, reports RT's Peter Oliver from Athens. read more

  • "Changing the Political Clocks in Spain" by Hadleigh Roberts

    Updated: 2012-11-05 11:15:38
    If you can’t move elections to suit events, you have to move events to suit elections. Such has been the Spanish Prime Minister, Mariano Rajoy’s, approach to the regional elections in Galicia and the Basque country. It was no surprise that Rajoy’s party, the conservative Partido Popular would hold Galicia. It is Rajoy’s homeland and [...]

  • Hurricane Sandy, the Great Red River Flood, the Philadelphia interest swap crisis, and public banking

    Updated: 2012-11-03 17:57:37
    I’ve been traveling and speaking for most of the last month and will be again in November, so haven’t managed to get an article out; but here are three posts on public banking that came out in the last week that I think are excellent: HURRICANE SANDY & THE GREAT RED RIVER FLOOD How the [...]

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